What Are The Implications Of Using A Multi-regional Input-output Model To Estimate The Embodied Carbon Emissions Of International Trade Flows On The Accuracy Of SDG 13 (Climate Action) Progress Assessments, Particularly In Relation To Country-level GHG Emission Reductions Commitments Under The Paris Agreement?

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Using multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models to estimate embodied carbon emissions in international trade offers a more comprehensive assessment of progress towards SDG 13 and the Paris Agreement's emission reduction commitments. Here's a structured summary of the implications:

  1. Comprehensive Emission Accounting: MRIO models capture both territorial and consumption-based emissions, revealing the true carbon footprint of countries by including emissions from imported goods. This approach helps identify whether emission reductions are genuine or merely a result of outsourcing production.

  2. Impact on SDG 13 Assessments: By accounting for embodied emissions, MRIO models provide a more accurate picture of a country's environmental impact. This can prevent misleading assessments where territorial emissions appear reduced, but consumption emissions remain high, ensuring a truer measure of progress towards climate goals.

  3. Policy Implications: The use of MRIO models could lead to more informed policy-making, encouraging countries to address the carbon intensity of their imports and potentially fostering international cooperation to reduce embodied emissions.

  4. Challenges and Considerations:

    • Data and Complexity: MRIO models require extensive data and can be complex, potentially limiting their use in resource-constrained regions.
    • Model Limitations: Data may be outdated, introducing inaccuracies, especially in dynamic economies.
    • International Dynamics: Shifting accountability to consumption emissions might strain international relations, as countries could feel unfairly judged for emissions from imports.

  5. Literature and Case Studies: Examples like China and the US illustrate how MRIO models can alter perceptions of emission responsibility, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach in setting and evaluating climate commitments.

In conclusion, MRIO models enhance the accuracy of climate progress assessments by providing a holistic view of emissions, though they also present challenges that need careful consideration in policy and international contexts.